In the past two or three months, the hybrid bus subsidy has been a focus of a new round of rumors about subsidies for energy-efficient and new-energy vehicles. Recently, it has been reported that a new round of subsidy policies will be introduced in September, and the subsidy for hybrid buses may be significantly reduced.

Among all kinds of energy-saving and new energy vehicles participating in the demonstration operation of "ten thousand vehicles in ten cities", hybrid electric bus not only has the largest operation scale, but also has the most market potential. The new round of subsidy policy undoubtedly has a decisive impact on its marketization process. What changes did the previous subsidy policy bring to the hybrid bus technology in China? Compared with conventional fuel buses, how is the market competitiveness of hybrid electric buses in China? How to adjust the subsidy policy is most conducive to the marketization of hybrid electric buses? Reporters interviewed a number of automotive industry experts and scholars and business people.

Subsidies "create" markets of scale

In the demonstration run of "ten thousand buses in ten cities", the performance of hybrid electric bus is especially outstanding. According to the 2012 China new energy bus consumption report, during the 3-year demonstration operation, 25 demonstration cities promoted more than 10,000 energy-saving and new energy buses, accounting for nearly half of the planned total energy-saving and new energy vehicles, 85% of which were hybrid buses. More than 30 bus companies have put energy-saving and new energy products into production, driving the development of battery, motor and other related industries.

By the end of 2012, the four ministries expanded the promotion scope of hybrid electric bus from 25 pilot cities to the whole country, further accelerating the marketization of hybrid electric bus, and the sales volume of hybrid electric bus of mainstream bus enterprises increased significantly. Public data show that in the first five months of this year, the sales of yutong energy-saving and new-energy buses increased 500% year-on-year, with hybrid buses accounting for 85%. In the first half of this year, yutong energy saving and new energy bus market share is about 40%. Last year, xiamen golden dragon sold about 800 hybrid buses. So far this year, it has sold nearly 900. Lin yibei, director of the strategic research and development department of golden dragon technology center, told reporters that the expansion of the promotion scope is the main reason for the sharp increase in the sales of hybrid buses. Meanwhile, the practice of directly distributing subsidies to enterprises by the central government has effectively broken the local protection.

"The demonstration operation of hybrid electric buses has been relatively successful." Wang binggang, special expert and project specialist of the 863 program of the ministry of science and technology of the People's Republic of China, believes that the energy-saving effect and promotion quantity of vehicles are very outstanding, and reflect the achievements of independent research and development.

Hou fushen, minister of technology development of Chinese society of automotive engineering, said that the hybrid bus is the biggest highlight in the demonstration operation of "thousands of buses in ten cities", and the demonstration operation of "thousands of buses in ten cities" and the government subsidy policy are important reasons for the rapid maturity of hybrid bus technology in China. "The government created this market, but it has a certain capacity." He said.

Subsidize "ripening" autonomous technology

Compared with the number of promotion, the industry attaches more importance to the progress of hybrid bus technology. Hou fushan told reporters that last year, the Chinese society of automotive engineering on a number of cities to demonstrate the operation of hybrid bus concentration sampling test, found that some brands of hybrid power system fuel efficiency is very good, even better than foreign products. The data provided by the enterprise also shows that the conventional hybrid electric bus with better market performance can achieve fuel saving rate of about 30% in the actual line.

"The fuel efficiency of hybrids depends on three factors: braking energy recovery, start-stop, and the fact that the engine is always operating at optimal conditions. The more fuel efficient the hybrid system, the more complex the structure." Ye shengji, deputy secretary-general of the China association of automobile manufacturers, said that after several years of demonstration operation, China's hybrid electric vehicle technology has basically matured, among which the hybrid electric bus technology is the most mature and the hybrid electric passenger vehicle technology tends to mature.

Wang binggang said, from the current situation, the bus hybrid technology is the most competitive, fuel efficiency can reach more than 20%, and the structure is relatively simple. In addition, some domestic enterprises and research institutions are developing deep mixing technology for passenger cars, which can save more than 40% of the fuel.

"The demonstration operation plays a very important role in promoting the technological progress of hybrid electric buses, which can be said to be a successful case of 'market for technology'." Lin yibei told reporters that the technological progress of hybrid electric buses is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the hybrid electric power system integration degree is increasingly high; Second, the matching and control technology of system assembly is more and more advanced. Third, the technical route is gradually approaching the world advanced level. "The world's advanced hybrid power system generally has the characteristics of high mechatronics integration and advanced structure, and the road adaptation range is very wide. The domestic system is still far behind the world advanced level, but its price is much lower, so it is very competitive." He said. Removing subsidies requires a process

Since last year was the final year of the demonstration operation of "ten thousand buses in ten cities", the issue of how to continue the subsidy policy of energy saving and new energy buses has attracted the attention of people in the industry. During this year's national "two sessions", tang yuxiang, a deputy to the National People's Congress and President of yutong group, proposed to continue to provide financial subsidies for conventional hybrid electric buses, and continue to expand the scope of policy support, so as to realize the application scale of new energy to reach the economic scale as soon as possible. "Hybrid buses no longer need special policies, just continuity and no restrictions on the development of the city." "He said at the time.

In June, with the completion of the target of promoting 3,000 to 5,000 hybrid electric buses nationwide, the sales of energy-saving and new energy buses stagnated, and many enterprises even appeared the phenomenon of "zero order". Public opinion generally expects that the adjustment of subsidies for hybrid buses will not cause sharp changes in the market.

"If we remove subsidies now, the marketization of hybrid buses will stop immediately, and all our previous efforts will be wasted." "The purpose of subsidies is to build scale," he said. "it's better to exit slowly."

Ye expects that the subsidy policies for energy-saving and new-energy vehicles will remain relatively stable and have a certain continuity, and there will not be much change.

Mr. Wang said the subsidies would eventually be eliminated, but he hoped there would be a process. "Of course, the process can't be very long and companies need to accelerate their research and development." He expects that some products will be retained and others will be eliminated. The key is the cost-effectiveness of the technical solution, that is, the fuel efficiency and the increased cost must be maintained in a reasonable proportion.

"Compared with 2009, when the pilot project was launched, the purchase cost and use cost of hybrid electric buses in China have dropped a lot, but they are not capable of independent survival." Lin yibei believes that if the actual fuel saving rate is stable at more than 20%, the cost increase is no more than 200,000 yuan, and the failure rate reaches the level of diesel buses, hybrid buses can compete with diesel buses. "It will take at least a year or two to reach that level." He said.

"With the timetable set by the government and the efforts of the enterprises, it is believed that in another two or three years, China's hybrid electric buses will have a strong market competitiveness, and the market will gradually concentrate on powerful bus enterprises." Wang binggang told reporters.

Hou fushen believes that if the fuel cost saved by a hybrid bus within three years can offset the increased purchase cost, the conditions for a fully market-oriented operation are ripe. "The service life of buses in our country is eight years, which means that hybrid buses can be profitable in five years." He said.